Wheelersburg 42 Minford 13

[Badboy]

These two teams have played each other tooth and nail since pee-wees, Jr. High, Freshman, etc., with each game being decided by a TD or less. I expect nothing less than the same will happen here. W'burg needs to jump on Minford early and Minford need to have their offense be their best defense and keep W'burg off the field.

A common opponent: Portsmouth's defense hung with Wburg until the start of the 4th quarter and their defense did have a few key stops. Portsmouth dropped wide open passes on 3 and 4th down in the Pirate red zone and W' burg made the Trojans pay for their mistakes on scoring drives. Portsmouth did try and get the edge and did pass the ball out of the spread gun option and Minford was able to shut the Trojans down. I do feel the Falcon 97-yard drive where Minford didn't attempt one pass, to end the first half, wore the Trojans down both physically and mentally and they were done by halftime. Anytime you can run the ball down another teams throat and they have no answer, it does affect them mentally and it shows in the later quarters. That's exactly what Minford needs to do here and not get discouraged if they're stopped a time or two.

I'll chalk the West game up to experience and sometimes it's good for a team to go thru that to get their heads screwed back on straight. Minford has made the necessary adjustments, their coaches have addressed the problems that happened against west, and now it's up to the kids to preform.

Minford must capitalize when in the zed zone and come away with points and keep W'burgs offense of the field. If Minford does this and sticks to what they do best with their ground and pound game and doesn't get cute they will come away with the win.

Completely agree. I am not saying that Minford doesnt need to throw the ball some, but they need to line up and smash it right at Burgs defense all night. Seeing Burg's D line and LB's, they will make some stops but I see them getting beat down as the game goes on. Minford will have more and more success between the tackles as the game goes on. Minford needs to lean on McCray, Madden and Carter in this game. Take the cute playbook and throw it out the window.

[B0UNCE]

I hope he Falcons can run between the tackles all night. Everybody knows Burg will adjust to the run knowing the Falcons will not pass.

[4thgoal]

I would guess that Burg will change up their defensive personnel a little and put some bigger kids on the D-line in this one. Burg's defense has been one of those bend, but don't break type defenses this year and have made the big stops when they have to. I think the bigger question will be, can Minford's defense contain the up-tempo passing game? Burg is averaging 49 ppg and 463 yards of offense a game.

[vladimir]

I kinda feel this Falcon team has been looking ahead all year to this week and week 10, and got caught doing so against West. I expect Minford to turn it up a notch and show the area what their made of in this match up when the "Dale, (aka: Sciotodale,)" comes to town Friday night.

[vladimir]

With all this rain moving in tonight thru Friday afternoon and Minford's field being natural turf, if the field is wet and muddy, it could pose problems for W'burgs up tempo passing game and slow their speed down. We haven't seen a game in the area all year with those type of conditions and that's an advantage for Minford if that's the case.

[4thgoal]

The forecast for Muletown for Friday shows 63° and partly cloudy, so even if the ground is a little wet, it shouldn't be an issue. Honestly, a little rain would probably help all of the grass fields around here and they would soak it up like a sponge.

[nutronron2012]

The forecast for Muletown for Friday shows 63° and partly cloudy, so even if the ground is a little wet, it shouldn't be an issue. Honestly, a little rain would probably help all of the grass fields around here and they would soak it up like a sponge.

Minford will let the grass keep growing and the water hoses running all week They will do the same for week 10 too.

[4thgoal]

You are probably right about the sprinklers!

[nutronron2012]

If the projections work out like http://fantastic50.net/Ohio_Brackets.php are saying. Burg would get West back to back. Back to back Halloween bowls could be entertaining

Region 17 Projections
1) Wheelersburg (10-0) 26.60
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (8-2) 25.28
3) Liberty Union (Baltimore) (9-1) 21.35
4) St Clairsville (9-1) 21.03
5) Martins Ferry (8-2) 19.67
6) Fairland (Proctorville) (7-3) 16.10
7) Westfall (Williamsport) (5-5) 11.15
8 ) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (5-5) 9.5

[4thgoal]

That could be interesting if it worked out that way. Lots of orange and black for the 2 weeks following Halloween! Lots of football to be played before then though...

Westfall's win this week really changed the outlook for R17 and threw them into the mix. I don't think anyone saw that one coming.

[LICKING COUNTY FAN]

Time Warner Sports Channel is replaying this one.

Will be the 2nd the Burg has been replayed this season.

[Trojan_Pride]

If the projections work out like http://fantastic50.net/Ohio_Brackets.php are saying. Burg would get West back to back. Back to back Halloween bowls could be entertaining

Region 17 Projections
1) Wheelersburg (10-0) 26.60
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (8-2) 25.28
3) Liberty Union (Baltimore) (9-1) 21.35
4) St Clairsville (9-1) 21.03
5) Martins Ferry (8-2) 19.67
6) Fairland (Proctorville) (7-3) 16.10
7) Westfall (Williamsport) (5-5) 11.15
8 ) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (5-5) 9.5

those predictions are wrong west loses there OUT

and my bad I have to edit this they will end season with around 8.6000 points still (OUT) LOL

[jagered]

You forgot to put this with that my friend it is based on over 10,000 scenarios and West isn't even in those 10,000 :122246 :122246 (posted Oct. 14, 2013 - after week #7)

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During the regular season, these projections are based on the aggregate results of at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time. For each team, a projected record is determined (based on the media number of wins across the simulations), followed by a projected Harbin point total (from the median number of Harbin points earned in finishing with the projected number of wins).

[jagered]

I will say this tho, looking at that region 6-8 is going to be a toss up, 1-5 are pretty much locked up but in no particular order.

[jagered]

Toughest Schedules so far, Division V
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) 0.946
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 0.926
3) Van Wert 0.866
4) Warrensville Heights 0.829
5) Coldwater 0.821
6) Ironton 0.806
7) West Muskingum (Zanesville) 0.800
8) Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 0.771
9) Orrville 0.768
10) Portsmouth 0.765

per the same site

[jagered]

This is fun to look at and not sure how they base the point spread, but just browsing they seem to be pretty close on them.

Biggest Upsets
(posted Oct. 14, 2013 - after week #7)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ranked on the basis of how unlikely the underdog was to win, at the time of the game (based on percentage, not margin).

Biggest upsets, based on % chance of upset at the time
1) Purcell Marian (Cincinnati) 12 vs Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 9, week #4, 31-pt underdog, 4.4%
2) Chardon 14 vs South (Willoughby) 7, week #6, 28-pt underdog, 5.1%
3) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 23 at La Salle (Cincinnati) 20, week #5, 26-pt underdog, 6.5%
4) Central Crossing (Grove City) 10 at Brookhaven (Columbus) 7, week #3, 27-pt underdog, 7.4%
5) Waterloo (Atwater) 29 at Garfield (Garrettsville) 24, week #4, 25-pt underdog, 8.0%
6) Pleasant (Marion) 20 at Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 14, week #3, 26-pt underdog, 8.3%
7) Bucyrus 37 vs Upper Sandusky 36, week #7, 22-pt underdog, 9.0%
8) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 35 vs Minford 28, week #6, 23-pt underdog, 9.2%
9) Bellaire 38 vs St Clairsville 28, week #7, 22-pt underdog, 9.4%
10) Woodward (Toledo) 6 vs Rogers (Toledo) 2, week #7, 22-pt underdog, 9.5%
11) Hawken (Gates Mills) 49 at Independence 35, week #7, 22-pt underdog, 9.8%
12) Benedictine (Cleveland) 38 at Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 28, week #6, 22-pt underdog, 10.1%
13) Garfield (Garrettsville) 24 at Southeast (Ravenna) 21, week #7, 21-pt underdog, 10.1%
14) Wynford (Bucyrus) 14 vs Galion 13, week #7, 21-pt underdog, 10.3%
15) Belpre 54 at Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 0, week #1, 26-pt underdog, 10.5%
16) Jackson (Massillon) 39 at Lake (Uniontown) 36, week #4, 23-pt underdog, 10.6%
17) Lima Senior (Lima) 49 at Piqua 42, week #3, 23-pt underdog, 10.7%
18) Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 32 vs Norwayne (Creston) 28, week #2, 24-pt underdog, 11.6%
19) Westfall (Williamsport) 20 at Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 12, week #7, 20-pt underdog, 11.7%
20) Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 24 at Glenoak (Canton) 23, week #6, 20-pt underdog, 12.0%
21) Crestview (Ashland) 26 vs Wynford (Bucyrus) 21, week #3, 22-pt underdog, 12.0%
22) East Clinton (Lees Creek) 27 at Mc Clain (Greenfield) 21, week #5, 20-pt underdog, 12.3%
23) Chippewa (Doylestown) 48 vs Norwayne (Creston) 38, week #6, 20-pt underdog, 12.6%
24) Madison Plains (London) 47 vs Bexley (Columbus) 31, week #7, 19-pt underdog, 12.7%
25) Euclid 21 at Warren G Harding (Warren) 14, week #7, 19-pt underdog, 13.3%
26) Mapleton (Ashland) 14 at Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 7, week #2, 22-pt underdog, 13.4%
27) Shenandoah (Sarahsville) 32 vs Buckeye Trail (Lore City) 21, week #6, 18-pt underdog, 13.9%
28) Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 20 at Euclid 9, week #2, 21-pt underdog, 14.0%
29) Jackson (Massillon) 21 at Glenoak (Canton) 20, week #5, 19-pt underdog, 14.0%
30) Southeastern (Chillicothe) 28 vs Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 13, week #2, 21-pt underdog, 14.2%
31) Preble Shawnee (Camden) 62 at Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 30, week #2, 21-pt underdog, 14.4%
32) Bridgeport 26 vs Columbiana 25, week #1, 22-pt underdog, 14.6%
33) Fisher Catholic (Lancaster) 28 vs Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) 27, week #6, 18-pt underdog, 14.7%
34) Ayersville (Defiance) 42 vs Northwood 34, week #1, 22-pt underdog, 14.7%
35) Jackson-Milton (North Jackson) 38 at Mineral Ridge 21, week #7, 17-pt underdog, 14.9%
36) Frontier (New Matamoras) 14 at Beallsville 6, week #5, 18-pt underdog, 14.9%
37) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 41 vs Malvern 20, week #7, 17-pt underdog, 15.1%
38) Newcomerstown 15 vs Garaway (Sugarcreek) 7, week #5, 18-pt underdog, 15.2%
39) Defiance 28 at Elida 27, week #2, 20-pt underdog, 15.6%
40) Twin Valley South (West Alexandria) 44 vs Dixie (New Lebanon) 21, week #1, 21-pt underdog, 15.6%
41) Riverside (De Graff) 28 vs Bradford 24, week #1, 21-pt underdog, 15.9%
42) Fort Loramie 14 vs Ada 8, week #4, 18-pt underdog, 16.1%
43) Portsmouth 33 at Ironton 20, week #5, 17-pt underdog, 16.2%
44) Mohawk (Sycamore) 39 at Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 20, week #6, 17-pt underdog, 16.3%
45) Union Local (Belmont) 14 at Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 13, week #1, 20-pt underdog, 16.8%
46) Fairless (Navarre) 42 at Garaway (Sugarcreek) 31, week #2, 19-pt underdog, 16.8%
47) Tuscarawas Valley (Zoarville) 21 at Coshocton 8, week #2, 19-pt underdog, 16.8%
48) Lincoln (Gahanna) 31 vs Reynoldsburg 14, week #6, 16-pt underdog, 17.0%
49) West Branch (Beloit) 24 vs Carrollton 21, week #7, 16-pt underdog, 17.1%
50) Marion Harding (Marion) 7 vs Bowsher (Toledo) 0, week #4, 17-pt underdog, 17.1%

[jagered]

#185 Valley (Lucasville) (7-0) 116.5
Ranked #7 of 105 in Division VI, #3 in Region 21
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.275, #597 toughest (of 718)
Division VI strength-of-schedule 0.440, #65 toughest (of 105)
Conference championship: 24% outright, 44% at least a share
Projected record 9-1, win total probabilities 8W-19% 9W-57% 10W-24%
Harbin projections (ranges): 7W-16.2(15.7-16.6) 8W-17.8(15.9-21.2) 9W-21.6(19.4-25.3) 10W-25.9(24.0-27.7)
Home game probabilities: 7W-80% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#4 (#3-#5) 8W-#4 (#2-#6) 9W-#2 (#1-#5) 10W-#2 (#1-#2)
Projected 21.60 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #2 seed (best #1, worst #6)
Clinched playoff berth, 96% chance of a home game (control own destiny)
1st round opponents: Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 28%, Oak Hill 23%, Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 15%, Newark Catholic (Newark) 13%, Fort Frye (Beverly) 11%
Week 1: Won 28-19 A vs #407 Portsmouth (2-5, D5 R17), pick: W by 21
Week 2: Won 35-14 H vs #506 Van Buren (3-4, D6 R20), pick: W by 15
Week 3: Won 56-21 A vs #412 Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (3-4, D6 R21), pick: W by 22
Week 4: Won 27-7 H vs #589 Chesapeake (1-6, D5 R17), pick: W by 32
Week 5: Won 62-29 H vs #564 South Point (5-2, D5 R17), pick: W by 30
Week 6: Won 41-0 A vs #529 Waverly (2-5, D5 R17), pick: W by 28
Week 7: Won 42-0 H vs #421 Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (3-4, D5 R17), pick: W by 20
Week 8: H vs #647 Northwest (Mc Dermott) (3-4, D5 R17) 99% W (37 pts)
Week 9: A vs #127 Wheelersburg (7-0, D5 R17) 66% L (7 pts)
Week 10: A vs #294 Minford (6-1, D4 R14) 71% W (9 pts)
Week 4: 113.7 (#202, #11 in D6, divisor 100, berth 99%, home 94%, proj. #2 seed) 6W-11.8H-77%-#8 7W-14.7H-99%-#5 8W-17.0H-100%-#3 9W-20.9H-100%-#2 10W-25.0H-100%-#1
Week 5: 116.8 (#175, #5 in D6, divisor 100, berth 99%, home 98%, proj. #2 seed) 6W-13.3H-93%-#6 7W-15.8H-99%-#4 8W-17.8H-100%-#3 9W-21.9H-100%-#2 10W-26.2H-100%-#1
Week 6: 114.9 (#201, #8 in D6, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 98%, proj. #2 seed) 7W-14.9H-100%-#4 8W-17.8H-100%-#3 9W-21.3H-100%-#2 10W-25.7H-100%-#1
Week 7: 116.5 (#185, #7 in D6, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 96%, proj. #2 seed) 7W-16.2H-100%-#4 8W-17.8H-100%-#4 9W-21.6H-100%-#2 10W-25.9H-100%-#2

[jagered]

#127 Wheelersburg (7-0) 121.9
Ranked #6 of 108 in Division V, #2 in Region 17
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.382, #500 toughest (of 718)
Division V strength-of-schedule 0.505, #63 toughest (of 108)
Conference championship: 52% outright, 74% at least a share
Projected record 10-0, win total probabilities 8W-8% 9W-40% 10W-52%
Harbin projections (ranges): 7W-16.3(14.4-17.6) 8W-19.0(16.6-22.0) 9W-22.6(20.3-26.0) 10W-26.6(24.5-28.5)
Home game probabilities: 7W-9% 8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#5 (#4-#6) 8W-#4 (#1-#5) 9W-#2 (#1-#5) 10W-#1 (#1-#3)
Projected 26.60 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected #1 seed (best #1, worst #6)
Clinched playoff berth, 97% chance of a home game (control own destiny)
1st round opponents: Westfall (Williamsport) 36%, Ironton 12%, Fairland (Proctorville) 12%, Piketon 10%, Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 5%
Week 1: Won 49-12 A vs #384 Ironton (2-5, D5 R17), pick: L by 5
Week 2: Won 39-20 H vs #412 Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (3-4, D6 R21), pick: W by 26
Week 3: Won 42-14 A vs #407 Portsmouth (2-5, D5 R17), pick: W by 21
Week 4: Won 55-32 H vs #309 Fairland (Proctorville) (4-3, D5 R17), pick: W by 25
Week 5: Won 49-14 A vs #371 Jackson (3-4, D3 R9), pick: W by 17
Week 6: Won 56-0 A vs #647 Northwest (Mc Dermott) (3-4, D5 R17), pick: W by 39
Week 7: Won 54-0 H vs #529 Waverly (2-5, D5 R17), pick: W by 33
Week 8: A vs #294 Minford (6-1, D4 R14) 81% W (14 pts)
Week 9: H vs #185 Valley (Lucasville) (7-0, D6 R21) 66% W (7 pts)
Week 10: H vs #421 Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (3-4, D5 R17) 94% W (26 pts)
Week 4: 121.9 (#122, #7 in D5, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 96%, proj. #3 seed) 7W-15.9H-100%-#5 8W-19.2H-100%-#4 9W-22.7H-100%-#2 10W-26.5H-100%-#1
Week 5: 123.8 (#104, #5 in D5, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 94%, proj. #3 seed) 7W-17.1H-100%-#5 8W-19.4H-100%-#4 9W-23.4H-100%-#3 10W-27.5H-100%-#1
Week 6: 123.0 (#118, #8 in D5, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 94%, proj. #1 seed) 7W-17.3H-100%-#5 8W-19.6H-100%-#5 9W-23.1H-100%-#4 10W-27.0H-100%-#2
Week 7: 121.9 (#127, #6 in D5, divisor 100, berth 100%, home 97%, proj. #1 seed) 7W-16.3H-100%-#5 8W-19.0H-100%-#4 9W-22.6H-100%-#2 10W-26.6H-100%-#1

[jagered]

#294 Minford (6-1) 106.0
Ranked #47 of 111 in Division IV, #13 in Region 14
Overall strength-of-schedule 0.245, #632 toughest (of 718)
Division IV strength-of-schedule 0.229, #108 toughest (of 111)
Conference championship: 1% outright, 5% at least a share
Projected record 7-3, win total probabilities 6W-7% 7W-56% 8W-32% 9W-5%
Harbin projections (ranges): 6W-12.4(10.1-15.2) 7W-14.2(11.4-19.0) 8W-18.4(15.3-23.0) 9W-22.5(20.3-24.8)
Playoff probabilities: 7W-1% 8W-47% 9W-100%
Home game probabilities: 8W-1% 9W-80%
Seed projections (ranges): 7W-#out (#5-#out) 8W-#out (#2-#out) 9W-#4 (#1-#8)
Projected 14.20 Harbin points (divisor 100), projected out (best #1, worst out)
Playoff chance 20% (control own destiny), 4% chance of a home game
Playoff chance 62% with a win this week, and 11% with a loss
1st round opponents: Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 24%, Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 23%, Valley View (Germantown) 13%, Urbana 10%, Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 10%
Week 1: Won 40-6 A vs #652 Rock Hill (Ironton) (0-7, D5 R17), pick: W by 25
Week 2: Won 34-0 H vs #535 Grandview Heights (Columbus) (2-5, D6 R21), pick: W by 20
Week 3: Won 58-0 H vs #556 Piketon (3-4, D5 R17), pick: W by 24
Week 4: Won 34-6 A vs #407 Portsmouth (2-5, D5 R17), pick: W by 9
Week 5: Won 30-16 A vs #401 Oak Hill (6-1, D6 R21), pick: W by 8
Week 6: Lost 28-35 A vs #421 Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (3-4, D5 R17), pick: W by 23
Week 7: Won 60-7 H vs #647 Northwest (Mc Dermott) (3-4, D5 R17), pick: W by 30
Week 8: H vs #127 Wheelersburg (7-0, D5 R17) 81% L (14 pts)
Week 9: A vs #529 Waverly (2-5, D5 R17) 87% W (19 pts)
Week 10: H vs #185 Valley (Lucasville) (7-0, D6 R21) 71% L (9 pts)
Week 4: 109.9 (#247, #39 in D4, divisor 100, berth 42%, home 12%, proj. out) 7W-13.1H-1% 8W-16.2H-20% 9W-20.0H-89%-#6 10W-24.0H-100%-#3
Week 5: 115.3 (#188, #28 in D4, divisor 100, berth 69%, home 30%, proj. #5 seed) 7W-14.7H-3% 8W-16.8H-29% 9W-20.6H-97%-#5 10W-24.9H-100%-#2
Week 6: 105.6 (#303, #51 in D4, divisor 100, berth 20%, home 3%, proj. out) 7W-14.0H-1% 8W-18.0H-44% 9W-22.1H-100%-#4
Week 7: 106.0 (#294, #47 in D4, divisor 100, berth 20%, home 4%, proj. out) 7W-14.2H-1% 8W-18.4H-47% 9W-22.5H-100%-#4

[jagered]

pretty clear that Minford needs 20f3 to get in. Certainly possible as is any game but realistically I just don't see it but I hope I am wrong.