Would love to see both these teams in the playoffs, but I think Jackson has the better shot with the win.
Two teams who have had great seasons.
Thanks, Locos. Would really like to see Jackson, along with Portsmouth, sneak into the playoffs to represent the SEOAL with Logan and Ironton.
Hope the Chieftains can take care of business next Friday to win the SEOAL title, get healthy, and then make a LONG run in the playoffs. Looking forward to watching Mr. Angle and company again in the coming weeks.
Gonna be posting my Region 12 analysis later tonight or tomorrow night. I've crunched the numbers with various assumptions, and it looks like Jackson has a VERY good chance of making the playoffs if they beat Zanesville. Things are going to be extremely close though, so a game here or there could definitely throw a wrench in my projections.
Zanesville's defeated opponent's aren't helping them out enough with 2nd level points and they have no chance of making it but I feel they will upend the Ironmen 28 - 14.
First things first. In doing these projections, I assumed that EVERY team in Region 12, currently ranked 6-13 will win this weekend. That may not happen, but for my purposes, it shows how the region could shake out even if the teams in front of Jackson win. To calculate all teams' second level points, I had to assume who would win all their opponents' games. In almost every case, I picked the team with the higher record, but it's impossible to know how these games will go. That's where possible variations to my projections could come into play, which is why these are simply projections. I do think they should be fairly accurate though.
Dayton CJ has already clinched a playoff spot. They will probably lose to Kettering Alter this weekend, but it won't matter. A win by CJ would secure the #1 seed for them. A loss and they'll be #2 or #3. With wins, Logan Elm, Cincinnati Wyoming, Lemon-Monroe, and Goshen are all likely in. Lemon-Monroe is the only one of those teams who does not control its own destiny, but I still think they are in. I'm not sure how the seeding will work for these teams because I didn't do all the calculations for them. I'm assuming they're in, which takes up 5 spots in the region, leaving 3 spots still up for grabs.
I'm going to break down the projections for the teams currently ranked 6-13 in the region, which are the teams still competing for the last three spots in the playoffs.
EDIT: Added in calculations for teams currenlty ranked #1-#5
#1 Dayton Chaminade-Julienne
Current L1 = 37.5 Current L2 = 152.5
Week 10 Opponent: Kettering Alter (9-0)
I'm projecting a loss for Dayton CJ in this game. They will gain other L2 points as follows though:
Troy vs. Sidney - Win - 5.5 points Thurgood Marshall vs. Ponitz Tech - Win - 3.5 points Ponitz Tech vs. Thurgood Marshall - Loss - 0.0 points Badin vs. Cincinnati McNicholas - Loss - 0.0 points Bishop Fenwick vs. Dayton Carroll - Loss - 0.0 points Dayton Carroll vs. Bishop Fenwick - Win - 4.5 points Purcell Marian vs. Roger Bacon - Loss - 0.0 points Roger Bacon vs. Purcell Marian - Win - 4.5 points
L2 Points = 18.0
**Badin could beat McNick, but to remain conistent with the other projections, I'm giving the win to McNick
Total L1 = 37.5 Total L2 = 170.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 20.8000
#2 Logan Elm
Current L1 = 34.0 Current L2 = 135.0
Week 10 Opponent: Circleville (3-6)
With a win over Circelville, LE will finish with 39.0 L1 points and will have 149.5 points before adding in the L2 points gained by beaten opponents in Week 10 as follows:
Washington Court House vs. Miami Trace - Win - 5.0 points Westfall vs. Piketon - Win - 4.5 points Zane Tracce vs. Paint Valley - Win - 4.0 points Hamilton Twp. vs. Fairfield Union - Loss - 0.0 points Teays Valley vs. Canal Winchester - Loss - 0.0 points Fairfield Union vs. Hamilton Twp. - Win - 5.5 points Bloom Carroll vs. Amanda-Clearcreek - Loss 0.0 points
L2 points = 19.0
Total L1 = 39.0 Total L2 = 168.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 20.7500
#3 Cincinnati Wyoming
Current L1 = 40.5 Current L2 = 122.5
Week 10 Opponent: Indian Hill (6-3)
With a win over Indian Hill, Wyoming would finish with 45.5 L1 points and would have 149.0 L2 points before adding in wins from beaten opponents from Week 10 as follows:
CHCA vs. Country Day - Loss - 0.0 points Oakwood vs. Frankilin - Loss - 0.0 points Norwood vs. Talawanda - Win - 5.5 points Reading vs. Deer Park - Win - 4.0 points Mariemont vs. Madeira - Loss - 0.0 points Madeira vs. Mariemont - Win - 4.0 points Deer Park vs. Reading - Loss - 0.0 points Finneytown vs. Taylor - Loss - 0.0 points Taylor vs. Finneytown - Win - 4.5 points
L2 points = 18.0
Total L1 = 45.5 Total L2 = 167.0 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 21.2500
#4 Lemon-Monroe
Current L1 = 32.5 Current L2 = 120.5
Week 10 Opponent: Northridge (1-8)
With a win over Northridge, LM would finish with 37.0 L1 points and would have 125.0 L2 points before adding in wins from their beaten opponents in Week 10 as follows:
Meadowdale vs. Dunbar - Loss - 0.0 points Valley View vs. Brookville - Win - 4.5 points Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points Madison vs. Waynesville - Loss - 0.0 points Carlisle vs. Dixie - Win - 4.0 points Preble Shawnee vs. Eaton - Loss - 0.0 points Dixie vs. Carlisle - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 9.5
Total L1 = 37.0 Total L2 = 134.5 L2 Divisor = 99 Projected Computer Average = 17.2858
#5 Goshen
Current L1 = 33.0 Current L2 = 118.5
Week 10 Opponent: West Carrollton (8-1)
I'm split on my projection for Goshen, so I'll give numbers for them with a win or loss. First, I'll show what I see for their other L2 points from beaten opponents this week:
Clermont Northeastern vs. Williamsburg - Loss - 0.0 points Blanchester vs. Batavia - Loss - 0.0 points East Clinton vs. Clinton-Massie - Loss - 0.0 points Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 points Batavia vs. Blanchester - Win - 4.5 points New Richmond vs. Greenville - Win - 5.5 points Bethel-Tate vs. Bishop Brossart (KY) - Win - 4.0 points
L2 points = 14.0
With a win vs. West Carrollton:
Total L1 = 38.5 Total L2 = 175.5 L2 Divisor = 99 Projected Computer Average = 21.5772
With a loss vs. West Carrollton:
Total L1 = 33.5 Total L2 = 132.5 L2 Divisor = 99 Projected Computer Average = 17.2338
#6 Springfield Shawnee
Current L1 = 28.5 Current L2 = 121.5
Week 10 Opponent: Dayton Stebbins (0-9)
With a win over Stebbins, Shawnee will finish the season with 34.0 L1 points. They will gain no L2 points from winless Stebbins, but they do have a chance to get L2 point from the following games in Week 10. Shawnee's beaten opponents are listed on the left. Also included is my projection for Shawnee's opponents, along with the L2 points that I predict will be garnered for Shawnee.
Catholic Central vs. Mechanicsburg - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Urbana vs. St. Paris Graham - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Northwestern vs. Greenon - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Greenon vs. Northwestern - Win - 4.5 L2 points Kenton Ridge vs. Tippecanoe - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Tecumseh vs. Bellefontaine - Win - 5.0 L2 points
L2 points = 9.5
Total L1 = 34.0 Total L2 = 131.0 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 16.5000
#7 Washington Court House
Current L1 = 28.5 Current L2 = 116.5
Week 10 Opponent: Miami Trace (4-5)
With a win over Miami Trace, WCH will end up with 33.5 L1 points and will have 135.5 L2 points. They could also gain L2 points from their beaten opponents as follows:
Circleville vs. Logan Elm - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Adena vs. Huntington Ross - Win - 4.0 L2 points Madison Plains vs. London - Loss - 0.0 L2 points Hillsboro vs. Greenfield McClain - Win - 5.0 L2 points Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 L2 points London vs. Madison Plains - Win - 4.5 L2 points
L2 Points = 13.5
Total L1 = 33.5 Total L2 = 149.0 L2 Divisor = 99 Projected Computer Average = 18.4005
#8 New Richmond
Current L1 = 35.5 Current L2 = 105.5
Week 10 Opponent: Greenville (3-6)
By beating Greenville, NR would finish with 41.0 L1 points and would have 122.0 L2 points without the results of their beaten opponents in Week 10. The breakdown of their other L2 points from Week 10 are as follows:
Deer Park vs. Reading - Loss - 0.0 points Mariemont vs. Madeira - Loss - 0.0 points Bethel Tate vs. Bishop Brossart(KY) - Win - 4.0 points Williamsburg vs. Clermont Northeastern - Win - 4.5 points Clermont NE vs. Williamsburg - Loss - 0.0 points Batavia vs. Blanchester - Win - 4.5 points East Clinton vs. Clinton-Massie - Loss - 0.0 points Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 13.0 points
Total L1 = 41.0 Total L2 = 135.0 L2 Divisor = 98 Projected Computer Average = 17.8755
#9 Eaton
Current L1 = 34.5 Current L2 = 106.0
Week 10 Opponent: Preble Shawnee (3-6)
With a win over Preble Shawnee, Eaton would finish with 39.0 L1 points, and would have 117.5 L2 points before adding in the rest of their points from beaten opponents in Week 10. The L2 points from their opponents are projected as follows:
Talawanda vs. Norwood - Loss - 0.0 points Greenon vs. Northwestern - Win - 4.5 points Brookville vs. Valley View - Loss - 0.0 points Oakwood vs. Franklin - Loss - 0.0 points Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points Franklin vs. Oakwood - Win - 5.0 points Valley View vs. Brookville - Win - 4.5 points
L2 points = 14.0
Total L1 = 39.0 Total L2 = 131.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 17.05
#10 Franklin
Current L1 = 29.5 Current L2 = 109.0
Week 10 Opponent: Dayton Oakwood (1-8)
With a win over Oakwood, Franklin would finish with 34.5 L1 points and have 114.0 L2 points before factoring in the wins of their beaten opponents in Week 10. Those L2 points are projected as follows:
Ross vs. Northwest - Win - 5.5 points Greenville vs. New Richmond - Loss - 0.0 points Milton-Union vs. Bellbrook - Win - 5.0 points Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points Madison vs. Waynesville - Loss -0.0 points Brookville vs. Valley View - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 10.5 points
Total L1 = 34.5 Total L2 = 124.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 15.90
#11 Cincinnati McNicholas
Current L1 = 24.0 Current L2 = 98.5
Week 10 Opponent: Hamilton Badin (6-3)
With a win over Badin, McNick would finish with 28.0 L1 points and would have 128.5 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 points from their beaten opponents. Those point are projected as follows:
Indian Hill vs. Cincinnati Wyoming - Loss - 0.0 points Dayton CJ vs. Kettering Alter - Loss - 0.0 points Roger Bacon vs. Purcell Marian - Loss - 0.0 points Purcell Marian vs. Roger Bacon - Win - 5.0 points Fenwick vs. Dayton Carroll - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 5.0
Total L1 = 28.0 Total L2 = 133.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 16.15
#12 Hillsboro
Current L1 = 34.5 Current L2 = 79.0
Week 10 Opponent: Greenfield McClain (4-5)
With a win over McClain, Hillsboro would finish with 39.5 L1 points and would have 96.5 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 wins from their beaten opponents. Those are projected as follows:
Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss 0.0 points GAHS vs. Marietta - Win - 5.5 points Stebbins vs. Shawnee - Loss - 0.0 points Blanchester vs. Batavia - Loss - 0.0 points Madison Plains vs. London - Loss - 0.0 points London vs. Madison Plains - Win - 4.5 points Miami Trace vs. WCH - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points - 10.0
Total L1 = 39.5 Total L2 = 106.5 L2 Divisor - 99 Projected Computer Average = 14.7075
#13 Jackson
Current L1 = 34.5 Current L2 = 76.0
Week 10 Opponent: Zanesville (8-1)
With a win over ZVille, Jackson would finish with 40.0 L1 points and would have 119.0 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 wins of their beaten opponents. Those are projected as follows:
Wellston vs. Alexander - Loss - 0.0 points Waverly vs. Northwest - Win - 4.5 points Vinton Co. vs. Nelsonville-York - Loss - 0.0 points Portsmouth vs. Western Brown - Win - 5.5 points GAHS vs. Marietta - Win - 5.5 points Marietta vs. GAHS - Loss - 0.0 points Chillicothe vs. Logan - Loss 0.0 points
L2 points = 15.5 points
Total L1 = 40.0 Total L2 = 134.5 L2 Divisor = 100 Projected Computer Average = 17.4500
Now, what does all this mean. It means that if teams currently ranked 6-13 ALL win in Week 10, and my projections of Week 10 games are accurate, Washington Court House, New Richmond, and Jackson would get the last three playoff spots in this region.
Projected Computer Averages for Teams Currently #6-#13
Washington Court House - 18.4005 New Richmond - 17.8755 Jackson - 17.4500 Eaton - 17.0500 Shawnee - 16.5000 McNicholas - 16.15 Franklin - 15.9000 Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Wins by Indian Hill (#14) and Greenfield McClain (#15) would not give them enough points to make the playoffs unless teams ranked #6-13# lost.
In the above scenario, Jackson will be the #8 seed in Region 12. They could potentially be as high as the #6 seed, but that's only if New Richmond and Washington lose, or if those two teams' beaten opponents don't win the games that I projected them to win. There's also the possibility that things don't work out as I projected, which could leave Jackson on the outside looking in, even with a win over Zanesville. I honestly believe, however, that if Jackson wins, they should get in.
EDIT: After looking at possible results for Lemon-Monroe's opponents, it is very possible that Washington Court House, New Richmond, and Jackson could ALL pass them, even if Lemon-Monroe wins this week. Goshen has a tough opponent, and a loss by them, could also allow WCH, NR, and Jackson to pass them as well. A Goshen win could lift them all the way to the #1 seed. Eaton is a wildcard in the entire situation. Their beaten opponents could sneak them into the #8 spot or maybe even a little higher. It would appear that Jackson may be safe from Eaton knocking them out of the playoffs as long as Lemon-Monroe falls below them.
Here's how I see the entire region playing out, according to my projections.
With a Goshen win this week:
#1. Goshen - 21.5772 #2. Wyoming - 21.2500 #3. Dayton CJ - 20.8000 #4. Logan Elm - 20.7500 #5. Court House - 18.4005 #6. New Richmond - 17.8755 #7. Jackson - 17.4500 #8. Lemon-Monroe - 17.2858 #9. Eaton - 17.0500 #10. Shawnee - 16.5000 #11. McNicholas - 16.1500 #12. Franklin - 15.9000 #13. Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Indian Hill or McClain could rank higher than #14 or #15 with wins, but they still wouldnt make the playoffs in this scenario.
With a Goshen Loss this week:
#1. Wyoming - 21.2500 #2. Dayton CJ - 20.8000 #3. Logan Elm - 20.7500 #4. Court House - 18.4005 #5. New Richmond - 17.8755 #6. Jackson - 17.4500 #7. Lemon-Monroe - 17.2858 #8. Goshen - 17.2338 #9. Eaton - 17.0500 #10. Shawnee - 16.5000 #11. McNicholas - 16.1500 #12. Franklin - 15.9000 #13. Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Indian Hill or McClain could rank higher than #14 or #15 with wins, but they still wouldnt make the playoffs in this scenario.
Lastly, this was a huge waste of my time unless Jackson beats Zanesville.
So, let's go Ironmen! BEAT ZANESVILLE AND LIVE TO PLAY WEEK 11!!!
GO IRONMEN!!! We can't worry about anyone else until we do what we must in Zanesville. I believe it will be as exciting as the Portsmouth game except it will be wire to wire from the kickoff. I would also like to say that we had a heck of a crowd in Logan last friday and I would love to see the crowd even bigger for the Zanesville game. Come on fans YOU ARE NEEDED!!!!!!!
camnott wrote:GO IRONMEN!!! We can't worry about anyone else until we do what we must in Zanesville. I believe it will be as exciting as the Portsmouth game except it will be wire to wire from the kickoff. I would also like to say that we had a heck of a crowd in Logan last friday and I would love to see the crowd even bigger for the Zanesville game. Come on fans YOU ARE NEEDED!!!!!!!
RE: ZHS kicker -- Senior Noah Baldwin (also our TE) was injured scoring a TD in our second game of the season. That was a serious loss for us because he has FG range out to 50 yards, consistently kicked off to the end zone (six touchbacks on nine kickoffs before the injury) and was better than average punter (though he'd only had to punt one time before he went down). He was also a major weapon in our passing game. After his loss, we've had one guy (Lynn) punt (GAHS, you saw his two best punts of the season), two guys kicking PATs (with one of them doing the kickoffs) and a junior who didn't expect to play much this year become the regular starter at TE (and has one catch for the season).
Obviously, Jackson stands to get a better bump from a win here than we do, factoring in the Divisional difference (D2 vs. D3).
We're expecting a darn good game to finish the regular season. Neither team can control what goes on outside of this game, obviously, so I suspect we'll see two groups very focused for this one. Should be fun.
hey guys..im sorry to ask a ? not pertained to football....But to you jackson posters i have a question.. Tomorrow night im going down to rio grande. Ill be going back through jackson and want to watch the cavs game. So im looking for a sports bar that is in town that has good food and will have plenty of tv's that could be showing the game. Again, sorry for changing the subject, this was just the only way i knew of finding out. any help would be great! Thanks!
Have been to Logan football games this year - watched the beat down of Zanesville. The game was not as close as was the score. Jackson provided more of a challenge. The 8 - 1 record of Zanesville is deceiving; however, athletically speaking they have more athletes than does Jackson. A well coached team as is Jackson versus a team with better athletes provides for a good game. However, an adage that holds true in most sports is that "speed kills" and Zanesville is much faster than is Jackson. If Jackson can keep them inside the pen I will predict Jackson. However, if Zanesville breaks out of the pen it could be a long night for the Ironmen.
With that being said, Jackson is playing for a playoff berth and has more to play for meaning an intense atmosphere - this should be a good game. I am thinking of making the drive to see it.
Should be an awesome game. Zanesville isn't going to make playoffs, Jackson needs a win and some other good things to happen. My poll vote evened it up. Zanesville boys may believe that they do have a chance at week 11 and that may drive them to a big victory. I also think they are just a stronger team.
That a team like Zanesville could go 9-1 and not really come close to making playoffs means that there is a flaw in the system, and they're not the only people I see it happening to.
I see about a dozen teams statewide that in a fair system would be in the top ten in their region (including Zanesville, Athens, Warren, Jackson) but won't get close to going to playoffs. If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that Zanesville was going to go 9-1 I would have told you they were going to have a home game week 11.
This would be a heck of a game to go watch. I would like to see Jackson pull off the win in this one but am forced to give Zanesville the edge with the home field advantage. Good luck to both teams
falcon01 wrote:hey guys..im sorry to ask a ? not pertained to football....But to you jackson posters i have a question.. Tomorrow night im going down to rio grande. Ill be going back through jackson and want to watch the cavs game. So im looking for a sports bar that is in town that has good food and will have plenty of tv's that could be showing the game. Again, sorry for changing the subject, this was just the only way i knew of finding out. any help would be great! Thanks!
I'd say the best place to get what you're looking for in Jackson would be Dakota's Roadhouse. It's not actually a sports bar, but it's close enough. It has a bar and several TVs. If you come back to Jackson on US 35, you can turn left onto McCarty Lane, which is just before the Jackson/Wellston exit onto US 32. As you're coming up US 35, there's a BP gas station on the left. That's McCarty Lane. Once you're on McCarty, you'll keep straight, and Dakota's will be on your right.
falcon01 wrote:Thank you!! I had heard of some place called johnny's sports lounge or something. But wanted to hear what some Jackson people
If you want to go there, just continue on McCarty Lane past Wal-Mart to SR 93/Main Street. Turn right at the light and proceed down Main Street into Jackson. You'll pass several fast food restaurants as you go through town. Once you see McDonalds on the right, Johnny's is across the street. I've never been there, but I'd say it would be fine too.
Flatulence ... Beat down, my butt. We shot ourselves in the foot all night long on offense, and handed you the ball several times. Logan didn't have much to do with that. Logan didn't exactly light it up on our defense, either. But a loss is a loss. Is there no end to the arrogance with some of you Logan fans? What will be the excuses when you lose in the post-season?
Geez ...
Regarding the system, here is a little research done by a friend of mine, who sent it to me in an e-mail this week. I still think the system works just fine, though MAYBE it over-emphasizes the L2 aspect. If it was on L1 alone, we'd be No. 4 in the region (Logan No. 1, BTW), and the only team in the top 8 right now who wouldn't make it would be St. Charles (who we beat), which would fall to 18th. But the Harbin system is far closer to "flawless" than how it's done in almost all other states. I once saw an absolutely horrendous 2-8 team in Tennessee make the playoffs one year while several 7-3 and 8-2 teams in their classification did not.
Anyway, that e-mail ...
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Below is the list of 20 teams with one loss or no losses to not make the OHSAA playoffs between 1999 and 2008 -- since the current eight teams per region format went into effect in the 1999 season.
There were 18 teams to go 9-1, while one went 8-1, and then there was the 10-0 Newcomerstown team in 2001. Of course, the Trojans were part of the years in which the OHSAA reclassified divisions every year, when the Trojans had a perfect Division V qualification schedule but got bumped up to Division IV for one season. I think around 2005ish is when the OHSAA went to reclassifying every two years, and with that said, it's interesting to note that in the past two seasons, there have been four one-loss teams in each season to not make it.
The 2000 season is the only time in the current format that all unbeatens and one-loss teams made it. Every other year, at least one one-loss team has missed. And of those 20, 14 just missed in their region by finishing ninth -- including two teams losing out on tiebreakers for eighth place.
The last time ZHS had a great record and didn't make the playoffs was the 8-1 team in 1998, but that was the last year of the four teams per region format, and ZHS was fifth in Region 7.
Anyway, here's the list:
1999 Region 14: Columbus Ready, 9th Region 20: New Albany, 9th
2000 None
2001 Region 2: Perrysburg, 9th Region 15: Newcomerstown (10-0), 12th
2002 Region 8: Woodward, 9th Region 12: New Richmond, 9th
2003 Region 4: Lebanon, 11th
2004 Region 4: Northmont, 9th Region 4: Lakota East, 10th Region 10: Beechcroft, 9th
2005 Region 19: Trimble, 9th
2006 Region 5: West Geauga, 9th
2007 Region 12: Eastmoor Academy, 9th Region 14: Bucyrus, 13th Region 17: Cuyahoga Heights, 9th (lost 3rd level tiebreaker for 8th) Region 23: Waterford, 9th
2008 Region 10: Urbana, 9th (lost 3rd level tiebreaker for 8th) Region 13: Girard, 12th Region 18: Northwood, 9th Region 24: Grove City Christian (8-1), 12th
